Table X. Forecasts (Fs and Catches are including estimated unallocated removals) | ||||||||||||||
Description\Variable | Fbar16 | Fbar17 | Fbar18 | Fbar19 | SSB16 | SSB17 | SSB18 | SSB19 | SSB20 | SSB % change | C16 | C17 | C18 | C19 |
Fsq, EU MP | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 147748 | 169745 | 170316 | 167312 | 164268 | 0 | 56302 | 54886 | 53538 | 51346 |
Fsq, EU-Norway | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 147748 | 169745 | 179905 | 175789 | 170413 | 6 | 56302 | 46298 | 56182 | 53218 |
Fsq, Fmsy HCR | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 147748 | 169745 | 178571 | 183513 | 186034 | 5 | 56302 | 47431 | 47361 | 47155 |
Fsq, zero catch | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 147748 | 169745 | 232404 | 302253 | 367831 | 37 | 56302 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fsq, Fmsy | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 147748 | 169745 | 178571 | 183513 | 186034 | 5 | 56302 | 47431 | 47361 | 47155 |
Fsq, TAC16 -20% | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 147748 | 169745 | 187141 | 202853 | 212934 | 10 | 56302 | 39518 | 39895 | 40043 |
Fsq, TAC16 -15% | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 147748 | 169745 | 184301 | 196760 | 203453 | 9 | 56302 | 41995 | 42456 | 42690 |
Fsq, TAC16 -10% | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 147748 | 169745 | 181585 | 190613 | 194023 | 7 | 56302 | 44478 | 45026 | 45374 |
Fsq, TAC16 -5% | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 147748 | 169745 | 178769 | 184580 | 184844 | 5 | 56302 | 46962 | 47616 | 48076 |
Fsq, TAC16 all years | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 147748 | 169745 | 176028 | 178460 | 174997 | 4 | 56302 | 49454 | 50214 | 50814 |
Fsq, TAC16 +5% | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 147748 | 169745 | 173324 | 172411 | 165421 | 2 | 56302 | 51940 | 52811 | 53577 |
Fsq, TAC16 +10% | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 147748 | 169745 | 170534 | 166597 | 156134 | 0 | 56302 | 54426 | 55445 | 56375 |
Fsq, TAC16 +15% | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 147748 | 169745 | 167778 | 160659 | 146885 | -1 | 56302 | 56915 | 58084 | 59233 |
Fsq, TAC16 +20% | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 147748 | 169745 | 165080 | 154588 | 137236 | -3 | 56302 | 59410 | 60721 | 62110 |
Fsq all years | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 147748 | 169745 | 171078 | 169860 | 168006 | 1 | 56302 | 54214 | 52065 | 50407 |
Fsq, 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 147748 | 169745 | 232404 | 302253 | 367831 | 37 | 56302 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fsq, 0.01 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 147748 | 169745 | 230507 | 297406 | 359881 | 36 | 56302 | 1636 | 2097 | 2484 |
Fsq, 0.02 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 147748 | 169745 | 228729 | 292693 | 352094 | 35 | 56302 | 3258 | 4145 | 4879 |
Fsq, 0.03 | 0.39 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 147748 | 169745 | 226750 | 288166 | 344536 | 34 | 56302 | 4865 | 6145 | 7189 |
Fsq, 0.04 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 147748 | 169745 | 224720 | 284044 | 337172 | 32 | 56302 | 6459 | 8086 | 9404 |
Fsq, 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 147748 | 169745 | 222851 | 279691 | 330049 | 31 | 56302 | 8039 | 9977 | 11544 |
Fsq, 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 147748 | 169745 | 221019 | 275400 | 322707 | 30 | 56302 | 9605 | 11820 | 13597 |
Fsq, 0.07 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 147748 | 169745 | 219232 | 271269 | 315731 | 29 | 56302 | 11159 | 13616 | 15578 |
Fsq, 0.08 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 147748 | 169745 | 217538 | 266849 | 308958 | 28 | 56302 | 12700 | 15365 | 17478 |
Fsq, 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 147748 | 169745 | 215868 | 262749 | 302707 | 27 | 56302 | 14226 | 17073 | 19324 |
Fsq, 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 147748 | 169745 | 214098 | 258756 | 296372 | 26 | 56302 | 15740 | 18761 | 21096 |
Fsq, 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 147748 | 169745 | 212315 | 254614 | 290043 | 25 | 56302 | 17244 | 20404 | 22769 |
Fsq, 0.12 | 0.39 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 147748 | 169745 | 210626 | 250683 | 283629 | 24 | 56302 | 18736 | 22007 | 24395 |
Fsq, 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 147748 | 169745 | 208966 | 246988 | 277915 | 23 | 56302 | 20219 | 23559 | 25974 |
Fsq, 0.14 | 0.39 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 147748 | 169745 | 207386 | 243352 | 272446 | 22 | 56302 | 21687 | 25066 | 27493 |
Fsq, 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 147748 | 169745 | 205795 | 239812 | 266847 | 21 | 56302 | 23150 | 26550 | 28926 |
Fsq, 0.16 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 147748 | 169745 | 204077 | 236296 | 261382 | 20 | 56302 | 24593 | 27969 | 30334 |
Fsq, 0.17 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 147748 | 169745 | 202579 | 232805 | 255843 | 19 | 56302 | 26023 | 29383 | 31692 |
Fsq, 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 147748 | 169745 | 200997 | 229351 | 250416 | 18 | 56302 | 27437 | 30746 | 33016 |
Fsq, 0.19 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 147748 | 169745 | 199351 | 225772 | 245401 | 17 | 56302 | 28845 | 32087 | 34225 |
Fsq, 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 147748 | 169745 | 197807 | 222444 | 240508 | 17 | 56302 | 30243 | 33432 | 35407 |
Fsq, 0.21 | 0.39 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 147748 | 169745 | 196249 | 218999 | 235777 | 16 | 56302 | 31634 | 34696 | 36543 |
Fsq, 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 147748 | 169745 | 194746 | 215789 | 230825 | 15 | 56302 | 33012 | 35922 | 37666 |
Fsq, 0.23 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 147748 | 169745 | 193194 | 212727 | 226264 | 14 | 56302 | 34377 | 37116 | 38700 |
Fsq, 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 147748 | 169745 | 191676 | 209604 | 221709 | 13 | 56302 | 35724 | 38242 | 39723 |
Fsq, 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 147748 | 169745 | 190141 | 206460 | 217286 | 12 | 56302 | 37066 | 39395 | 40698 |
Fsq, 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 147748 | 169745 | 188629 | 203792 | 212946 | 11 | 56302 | 38398 | 40477 | 41646 |
Fsq, 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 147748 | 169745 | 187121 | 200717 | 208905 | 10 | 56302 | 39720 | 41534 | 42506 |
Fsq, 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 147748 | 169745 | 185706 | 197627 | 204805 | 9 | 56302 | 41031 | 42556 | 43353 |
Fsq, 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 147748 | 169745 | 184351 | 194726 | 200869 | 9 | 56302 | 42331 | 43554 | 44186 |
Fsq, 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 147748 | 169745 | 182918 | 191757 | 197022 | 8 | 56302 | 43623 | 44537 | 44996 |
Fsq, 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 147748 | 169745 | 181497 | 189081 | 193523 | 7 | 56302 | 44903 | 45505 | 45742 |
Fsq, 0.32 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 147748 | 169745 | 180054 | 186328 | 189683 | 6 | 56302 | 46171 | 46434 | 46514 |
Fsq, 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 147748 | 169745 | 178571 | 183513 | 186034 | 5 | 56302 | 47431 | 47361 | 47155 |
Fsq, 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 147748 | 169745 | 177102 | 180816 | 182738 | 4 | 56302 | 48670 | 48250 | 47757 |
Fsq, 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 147748 | 169745 | 175723 | 178260 | 179319 | 4 | 56302 | 49907 | 49123 | 48347 |
Fsq, 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 147748 | 169745 | 174496 | 175782 | 176022 | 3 | 56302 | 51132 | 50003 | 48955 |
Fsq, 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 147748 | 169745 | 173118 | 173343 | 172691 | 2 | 56302 | 52353 | 50819 | 49531 |
Fsq, 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 147748 | 169745 | 171817 | 171133 | 169604 | 1 | 56302 | 53565 | 51615 | 50098 |
Fsq, 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 147748 | 169745 | 170449 | 168731 | 166535 | 0 | 56302 | 54767 | 52439 | 50622 |
Fsq, 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 147748 | 169745 | 169181 | 166293 | 163511 | -0 | 56302 | 55959 | 53176 | 51087 |
Fsq, 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 147748 | 169745 | 167931 | 164001 | 160562 | -1 | 56302 | 57140 | 53895 | 51541 |
Fsq, 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 147748 | 169745 | 166662 | 161850 | 157746 | -2 | 56302 | 58311 | 54609 | 52006 |
Fsq, 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 147748 | 169745 | 165378 | 159822 | 154899 | -3 | 56302 | 59469 | 55334 | 52419 |
Fsq, 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 147748 | 169745 | 164107 | 157692 | 152043 | -3 | 56302 | 60625 | 56020 | 52830 |
Fsq, 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 147748 | 169745 | 162835 | 155470 | 149271 | -4 | 56302 | 61761 | 56712 | 53236 |
Fsq, 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 147748 | 169745 | 161631 | 153230 | 146576 | -5 | 56302 | 62880 | 57412 | 53651 |
Fsq, 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 147748 | 169745 | 160372 | 151108 | 143886 | -6 | 56302 | 63993 | 58068 | 54061 |
Fsq, 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 147748 | 169745 | 159216 | 149136 | 141276 | -6 | 56302 | 65112 | 58638 | 54448 |
Fsq, 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 147748 | 169745 | 158087 | 147189 | 138723 | -7 | 56302 | 66234 | 59209 | 54735 |
Fsq, 0.50 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 147748 | 169745 | 156825 | 145207 | 136456 | -8 | 56302 | 67336 | 59809 | 54963 |