Table X. Forecasts (Fs and Catches are including estimated unallocated removals) | ||||||||||||||
Description\Variable | Fbar17 | Fbar18 | Fbar19 | Fbar20 | SSB17 | SSB18 | SSB19 | SSB20 | SSB21 | SSB % change | C17 | C18 | C19 | C20 |
Fsq, EU MP | 0.376 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 152766 | 180990 | 180686 | 190716 | 182649 | -0.168 | 51925 | 66225 | 68434 | 65567 |
Fsq, EU-Norway | 0.376 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 152766 | 180990 | 180686 | 190716 | 182649 | -0.168 | 51925 | 66225 | 68434 | 65567 |
Fsq, Fmsy HCR | 0.376 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 152766 | 180990 | 193248 | 218002 | 220938 | 6.773 | 51925 | 53058 | 58702 | 60074 |
Fsq, zero catch | 0.376 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 152766 | 180990 | 244926 | 357294 | 452544 | 35.326 | 51925 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fsq, Fmsy | 0.376 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 152766 | 180990 | 193248 | 218002 | 220938 | 6.773 | 51925 | 53058 | 58702 | 60074 |
Fsq, Fpa | 0.376 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 152766 | 180990 | 182038 | 193578 | 186702 | 0.579 | 51925 | 64804 | 67452 | 65059 |
Fsq, Flim | 0.376 | 0.540 | 0.540 | 0.540 | 152766 | 180990 | 162901 | 154653 | 138107 | -9.994 | 51925 | 85121 | 79354 | 69389 |
Fsq, SSB2019=Blim | 0.376 | 1.150 | 1.150 | 1.150 | 152766 | 180990 | 107000 | 71101 | 53120 | -40.880 | 51925 | 148238 | 90408 | 60903 |
Fsq, SSB2019=Bpa | 0.376 | 0.656 | 0.656 | 0.656 | 152766 | 180990 | 150000 | 131481 | 111026 | -17.122 | 51925 | 99187 | 85311 | 69661 |
Fsq, SSB2019=Btrigger | 0.376 | 0.656 | 0.656 | 0.656 | 152766 | 180990 | 150000 | 131481 | 111026 | -17.122 | 51925 | 99187 | 85311 | 69661 |
Fsq, TAC17 -20% | 0.376 | 0.329 | 0.268 | 0.224 | 152766 | 180990 | 190195 | 223339 | 242094 | 5.086 | 51925 | 55919 | 50845 | 45744 |
Fsq, TAC17 -15% | 0.376 | 0.353 | 0.293 | 0.250 | 152766 | 180990 | 186777 | 215241 | 229271 | 3.198 | 51925 | 59455 | 54126 | 48846 |
Fsq, TAC17 -10% | 0.376 | 0.377 | 0.320 | 0.279 | 152766 | 180990 | 183393 | 207067 | 215462 | 1.328 | 51925 | 62998 | 57461 | 51973 |
Fsq, TAC17 -5% | 0.376 | 0.402 | 0.349 | 0.313 | 152766 | 180990 | 179881 | 198369 | 202308 | -0.613 | 51925 | 66545 | 60794 | 55192 |
Fsq, TAC17 all years | 0.376 | 0.427 | 0.380 | 0.350 | 152766 | 180990 | 176460 | 190346 | 189273 | -2.503 | 51925 | 70095 | 64145 | 58446 |
Fsq, TAC17 +5% | 0.376 | 0.453 | 0.414 | 0.393 | 152766 | 180990 | 173105 | 182060 | 175589 | -4.356 | 51925 | 73650 | 67497 | 61807 |
Fsq, TAC17 +10% | 0.376 | 0.479 | 0.449 | 0.442 | 152766 | 180990 | 169665 | 173953 | 162995 | -6.257 | 51925 | 77207 | 70875 | 65207 |
Fsq, TAC17 +15% | 0.376 | 0.506 | 0.487 | 0.497 | 152766 | 180990 | 166176 | 165580 | 149657 | -8.185 | 51925 | 80783 | 74326 | 68760 |
Fsq, TAC17 +20% | 0.376 | 0.533 | 0.529 | 0.563 | 152766 | 180990 | 162761 | 156931 | 136738 | -10.072 | 51925 | 84378 | 77789 | 72473 |
Fsq all years | 0.376 | 0.376 | 0.376 | 0.376 | 152766 | 180990 | 183927 | 197546 | 192044 | 1.623 | 51925 | 62830 | 66054 | 64341 |
Fsq, 0.20 | 0.376 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 152766 | 180990 | 210118 | 258341 | 281560 | 16.094 | 51925 | 35631 | 43105 | 47656 |
Fsq, 0.21 | 0.376 | 0.210 | 0.210 | 0.210 | 152766 | 180990 | 208456 | 254151 | 275378 | 15.176 | 51925 | 37276 | 44724 | 49101 |
Fsq, 0.22 | 0.376 | 0.220 | 0.220 | 0.220 | 152766 | 180990 | 206782 | 250245 | 268901 | 14.251 | 51925 | 38906 | 46330 | 50521 |
Fsq, 0.23 | 0.376 | 0.230 | 0.230 | 0.230 | 152766 | 180990 | 205195 | 246591 | 262894 | 13.374 | 51925 | 40535 | 47824 | 51852 |
Fsq, 0.24 | 0.376 | 0.240 | 0.240 | 0.240 | 152766 | 180990 | 203634 | 242691 | 257022 | 12.512 | 51925 | 42142 | 49301 | 53066 |
Fsq, 0.25 | 0.376 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 152766 | 180990 | 202120 | 238954 | 251680 | 11.675 | 51925 | 43745 | 50765 | 54216 |
Fsq, 0.26 | 0.376 | 0.260 | 0.260 | 0.260 | 152766 | 180990 | 200680 | 235479 | 246418 | 10.879 | 51925 | 45329 | 52193 | 55342 |
Fsq, 0.27 | 0.376 | 0.270 | 0.270 | 0.270 | 152766 | 180990 | 199255 | 231814 | 241197 | 10.092 | 51925 | 46893 | 53559 | 56421 |
Fsq, 0.28 | 0.376 | 0.280 | 0.280 | 0.280 | 152766 | 180990 | 197825 | 228081 | 236161 | 9.302 | 51925 | 48444 | 54857 | 57345 |
Fsq, 0.29 | 0.376 | 0.290 | 0.290 | 0.290 | 152766 | 180990 | 196317 | 224630 | 230901 | 8.469 | 51925 | 49986 | 56156 | 58309 |
Fsq, 0.30 | 0.376 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 152766 | 180990 | 194773 | 221228 | 225801 | 7.616 | 51925 | 51535 | 57435 | 59205 |
Fsq, 0.31 | 0.376 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 152766 | 180990 | 193248 | 218002 | 220938 | 6.773 | 51925 | 53058 | 58702 | 60074 |
Fsq, 0.32 | 0.376 | 0.320 | 0.320 | 0.320 | 152766 | 180990 | 191828 | 214798 | 216247 | 5.988 | 51925 | 54564 | 59928 | 60905 |
Fsq, 0.33 | 0.376 | 0.330 | 0.330 | 0.330 | 152766 | 180990 | 190384 | 211505 | 211817 | 5.190 | 51925 | 56057 | 61117 | 61580 |
Fsq, 0.34 | 0.376 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 152766 | 180990 | 188920 | 208417 | 207068 | 4.382 | 51925 | 57539 | 62255 | 62233 |
Fsq, 0.35 | 0.376 | 0.350 | 0.350 | 0.350 | 152766 | 180990 | 187486 | 205206 | 202626 | 3.589 | 51925 | 59018 | 63361 | 62846 |
Fsq, 0.36 | 0.376 | 0.360 | 0.360 | 0.360 | 152766 | 180990 | 186096 | 202169 | 198502 | 2.821 | 51925 | 60476 | 64391 | 63422 |
Fsq, 0.37 | 0.376 | 0.370 | 0.370 | 0.370 | 152766 | 180990 | 184749 | 199247 | 194391 | 2.077 | 51925 | 61923 | 65412 | 64012 |
Fsq, 0.38 | 0.376 | 0.380 | 0.380 | 0.380 | 152766 | 180990 | 183423 | 196499 | 190634 | 1.345 | 51925 | 63368 | 66439 | 64530 |
Fsq, 0.39 | 0.376 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 152766 | 180990 | 182038 | 193578 | 186702 | 0.579 | 51925 | 64804 | 67452 | 65059 |
Fsq, 0.40 | 0.376 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 152766 | 180990 | 180686 | 190716 | 182649 | -0.168 | 51925 | 66225 | 68434 | 65567 |
Fsq, 0.41 | 0.376 | 0.410 | 0.410 | 0.410 | 152766 | 180990 | 179298 | 187926 | 178946 | -0.934 | 51925 | 67622 | 69359 | 66067 |
Fsq, 0.42 | 0.376 | 0.420 | 0.420 | 0.420 | 152766 | 180990 | 177932 | 185206 | 175432 | -1.690 | 51925 | 69008 | 70261 | 66563 |
Fsq, 0.43 | 0.376 | 0.430 | 0.430 | 0.430 | 152766 | 180990 | 176562 | 182473 | 171913 | -2.446 | 51925 | 70403 | 71174 | 67017 |
Fsq, 0.44 | 0.376 | 0.440 | 0.440 | 0.440 | 152766 | 180990 | 175213 | 179770 | 168433 | -3.192 | 51925 | 71788 | 72072 | 67354 |
Fsq, 0.45 | 0.376 | 0.450 | 0.450 | 0.450 | 152766 | 180990 | 173947 | 177142 | 164810 | -3.891 | 51925 | 73163 | 72957 | 67637 |
Fsq, 0.46 | 0.376 | 0.460 | 0.460 | 0.460 | 152766 | 180990 | 172838 | 174464 | 161520 | -4.504 | 51925 | 74528 | 73812 | 67958 |