Table X. Forecasts (Fs and Catches are including estimated unallocated removals) | ||||||||||||||
Description\Variable | Fbar17 | Fbar18 | Fbar19 | Fbar20 | SSB17 | SSB18 | SSB19 | SSB20 | SSB21 | SSB % change | C17 | C18 | C19 | C20 |
Fsq, EU MP | 0.352 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 169238 | 204267 | 202395 | 209498 | 197462 | -0.916 | 55207 | 74748 | 75799 | 71689 |
Fsq, EU-Norway | 0.352 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 169238 | 204267 | 202395 | 209498 | 197462 | -0.916 | 55207 | 74748 | 75799 | 71689 |
Fsq, Fmsy HCR | 0.352 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 169238 | 204267 | 216473 | 241628 | 239683 | 5.976 | 55207 | 59888 | 64950 | 65739 |
Fsq, zero catch | 0.352 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 169238 | 204267 | 275777 | 397724 | 499363 | 35.008 | 55207 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fsq, Fmsy | 0.352 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 169238 | 204267 | 216473 | 241628 | 239683 | 5.976 | 55207 | 59888 | 64950 | 65739 |
Fsq, Fpa | 0.352 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 169238 | 204267 | 203811 | 212541 | 201560 | -0.223 | 55207 | 73133 | 74746 | 71284 |
Fsq, Flim | 0.352 | 0.540 | 0.540 | 0.540 | 169238 | 204267 | 182048 | 170192 | 147916 | -10.877 | 55207 | 95963 | 87314 | 75321 |
Fsq, SSB2019=Blim | 0.352 | 1.285 | 1.285 | 1.285 | 169238 | 204267 | 107000 | 65413 | 47194 | -47.618 | 55207 | 178835 | 96613 | 60877 |
Fsq, SSB2019=Bpa | 0.352 | 0.803 | 0.803 | 0.803 | 169238 | 204267 | 150000 | 117475 | 91582 | -26.567 | 55207 | 130185 | 97334 | 73178 |
Fsq, SSB2019=Btrigger | 0.352 | 0.803 | 0.803 | 0.803 | 169238 | 204267 | 150000 | 117475 | 91582 | -26.567 | 55207 | 130185 | 97334 | 73178 |
Fsq, TAC17 -20% | 0.352 | 0.279 | 0.224 | 0.183 | 169238 | 204267 | 220655 | 266587 | 293577 | 8.023 | 55207 | 55135 | 50015 | 44707 |
Fsq, TAC17 -15% | 0.352 | 0.299 | 0.244 | 0.203 | 169238 | 204267 | 217094 | 258615 | 280671 | 6.279 | 55207 | 58613 | 53238 | 47678 |
Fsq, TAC17 -10% | 0.352 | 0.319 | 0.265 | 0.225 | 169238 | 204267 | 213494 | 250735 | 267939 | 4.517 | 55207 | 62089 | 56450 | 50671 |
Fsq, TAC17 -5% | 0.352 | 0.339 | 0.287 | 0.247 | 169238 | 204267 | 210182 | 242540 | 255515 | 2.896 | 55207 | 65567 | 59693 | 53699 |
Fsq, TAC17 all years | 0.352 | 0.360 | 0.311 | 0.272 | 169238 | 204267 | 206804 | 233903 | 242036 | 1.242 | 55207 | 69047 | 62944 | 56771 |
Fsq, TAC17 +5% | 0.352 | 0.381 | 0.335 | 0.300 | 169238 | 204267 | 203532 | 225301 | 228452 | -0.360 | 55207 | 72530 | 66206 | 59890 |
Fsq, TAC17 +10% | 0.352 | 0.403 | 0.362 | 0.332 | 169238 | 204267 | 200116 | 217435 | 215626 | -2.032 | 55207 | 76018 | 69466 | 63014 |
Fsq, TAC17 +15% | 0.352 | 0.425 | 0.390 | 0.369 | 169238 | 204267 | 196951 | 209168 | 201237 | -3.582 | 55207 | 79508 | 72761 | 66209 |
Fsq, TAC17 +20% | 0.352 | 0.447 | 0.420 | 0.408 | 169238 | 204267 | 193442 | 201124 | 188344 | -5.300 | 55207 | 83010 | 76073 | 69493 |
Fsq all years | 0.352 | 0.352 | 0.352 | 0.352 | 169238 | 204267 | 209849 | 226025 | 218394 | 2.732 | 55207 | 66900 | 70309 | 69069 |
Fsq, 0.20 | 0.352 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 169238 | 204267 | 235401 | 286697 | 308835 | 15.242 | 55207 | 40280 | 47685 | 52549 |
Fsq, 0.21 | 0.352 | 0.210 | 0.210 | 0.210 | 169238 | 204267 | 233538 | 281823 | 301773 | 14.329 | 55207 | 42121 | 49427 | 54154 |
Fsq, 0.22 | 0.352 | 0.220 | 0.220 | 0.220 | 169238 | 204267 | 231745 | 277513 | 295096 | 13.452 | 55207 | 43945 | 51140 | 55661 |
Fsq, 0.23 | 0.352 | 0.230 | 0.230 | 0.230 | 169238 | 204267 | 229989 | 273449 | 288281 | 12.592 | 55207 | 45740 | 52865 | 57003 |
Fsq, 0.24 | 0.352 | 0.240 | 0.240 | 0.240 | 169238 | 204267 | 228248 | 269073 | 281792 | 11.740 | 55207 | 47534 | 54500 | 58360 |
Fsq, 0.25 | 0.352 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 169238 | 204267 | 226515 | 264993 | 275424 | 10.892 | 55207 | 49338 | 56136 | 59534 |
Fsq, 0.26 | 0.352 | 0.260 | 0.260 | 0.260 | 169238 | 204267 | 224812 | 260850 | 269396 | 10.058 | 55207 | 51135 | 57722 | 60734 |
Fsq, 0.27 | 0.352 | 0.270 | 0.270 | 0.270 | 169238 | 204267 | 223230 | 256699 | 263001 | 9.284 | 55207 | 52895 | 59287 | 61846 |
Fsq, 0.28 | 0.352 | 0.280 | 0.280 | 0.280 | 169238 | 204267 | 221670 | 252884 | 256944 | 8.520 | 55207 | 54665 | 60779 | 62971 |
Fsq, 0.29 | 0.352 | 0.290 | 0.290 | 0.290 | 169238 | 204267 | 220010 | 249045 | 250790 | 7.707 | 55207 | 56422 | 62213 | 63915 |
Fsq, 0.30 | 0.352 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 0.300 | 169238 | 204267 | 218233 | 245523 | 245139 | 6.837 | 55207 | 58164 | 63621 | 64789 |
Fsq, 0.31 | 0.352 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 0.310 | 169238 | 204267 | 216473 | 241628 | 239683 | 5.976 | 55207 | 59888 | 64950 | 65739 |
Fsq, 0.32 | 0.352 | 0.320 | 0.320 | 0.320 | 169238 | 204267 | 214804 | 237989 | 234381 | 5.158 | 55207 | 61595 | 66277 | 66686 |
Fsq, 0.33 | 0.352 | 0.330 | 0.330 | 0.330 | 169238 | 204267 | 213162 | 234148 | 229151 | 4.354 | 55207 | 63282 | 67589 | 67502 |
Fsq, 0.34 | 0.352 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 0.340 | 169238 | 204267 | 211580 | 230352 | 224038 | 3.580 | 55207 | 64961 | 68905 | 68240 |
Fsq, 0.35 | 0.352 | 0.350 | 0.350 | 0.350 | 169238 | 204267 | 210083 | 226592 | 219208 | 2.847 | 55207 | 66633 | 70111 | 68953 |
Fsq, 0.36 | 0.352 | 0.360 | 0.360 | 0.360 | 169238 | 204267 | 208605 | 222837 | 214658 | 2.123 | 55207 | 68276 | 71332 | 69667 |
Fsq, 0.37 | 0.352 | 0.370 | 0.370 | 0.370 | 169238 | 204267 | 206988 | 219315 | 210078 | 1.332 | 55207 | 69893 | 72532 | 70201 |
Fsq, 0.38 | 0.352 | 0.380 | 0.380 | 0.380 | 169238 | 204267 | 205392 | 215929 | 205688 | 0.551 | 55207 | 71511 | 73657 | 70733 |
Fsq, 0.39 | 0.352 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 0.390 | 169238 | 204267 | 203811 | 212541 | 201560 | -0.223 | 55207 | 73133 | 74746 | 71284 |
Fsq, 0.40 | 0.352 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 169238 | 204267 | 202395 | 209498 | 197462 | -0.916 | 55207 | 74748 | 75799 | 71689 |
Fsq, 0.41 | 0.352 | 0.410 | 0.410 | 0.410 | 169238 | 204267 | 200975 | 206179 | 193302 | -1.612 | 55207 | 76351 | 76828 | 72050 |
Fsq, 0.42 | 0.352 | 0.420 | 0.420 | 0.420 | 169238 | 204267 | 199470 | 202989 | 189144 | -2.348 | 55207 | 77933 | 77816 | 72352 |
Fsq, 0.43 | 0.352 | 0.430 | 0.430 | 0.430 | 169238 | 204267 | 198055 | 200034 | 185044 | -3.041 | 55207 | 79502 | 78817 | 72742 |
Fsq, 0.44 | 0.352 | 0.440 | 0.440 | 0.440 | 169238 | 204267 | 196430 | 196758 | 181362 | -3.837 | 55207 | 81064 | 79774 | 73193 |
Fsq, 0.45 | 0.352 | 0.450 | 0.450 | 0.450 | 169238 | 204267 | 194795 | 193752 | 177656 | -4.637 | 55207 | 82605 | 80722 | 73560 |
Fsq, 0.46 | 0.352 | 0.460 | 0.460 | 0.460 | 169238 | 204267 | 193223 | 190938 | 174096 | -5.407 | 55207 | 84146 | 81583 | 73771 |
Fsq, 0.47 | 0.352 | 0.470 | 0.470 | 0.470 | 169238 | 204267 | 191677 | 188263 | 170544 | -6.164 | 55207 | 85678 | 82411 | 74037 |
Fsq, 0.48 | 0.352 | 0.480 | 0.480 | 0.480 | 169238 | 204267 | 190221 | 185500 | 167136 | -6.877 | 55207 | 87183 | 83182 | 74268 |