Table X. Forecasts (Fs and Catches are including estimated unallocated removals) | ||||||||||||||
Description\Variable | Fbar16 | Fbar17 | Fbar18 | Fbar19 | SSB16 | SSB17 | SSB18 | SSB19 | SSB20 | SSB % change | C16 | C17 | C18 | C19 |
Fsq, EU MP | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 149621 | 171112 | 172378 | 169158 | 163853 | 1 | 56104 | 55108 | 54635 | 52130 |
Fsq, EU-Norway | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 149621 | 171112 | 182054 | 179038 | 170264 | 6 | 56104 | 46461 | 56245 | 53791 |
Fsq, Fmsy HCR | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 149621 | 171112 | 180753 | 185716 | 186489 | 6 | 56104 | 47594 | 48343 | 47719 |
Fsq, zero catch | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 149621 | 171112 | 234400 | 304641 | 370328 | 37 | 56104 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fsq, Fmsy | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 149621 | 171112 | 180753 | 185716 | 186489 | 6 | 56104 | 47594 | 48343 | 47719 |
Fsq, TAC16 -20% | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 149621 | 171112 | 189109 | 204724 | 216313 | 11 | 56104 | 39587 | 39919 | 40011 |
Fsq, TAC16 -15% | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.27 | 149621 | 171112 | 186397 | 198745 | 206543 | 9 | 56104 | 42074 | 42482 | 42636 |
Fsq, TAC16 -10% | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 149621 | 171112 | 183564 | 192244 | 196707 | 7 | 56104 | 44561 | 45062 | 45285 |
Fsq, TAC16 -5% | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.33 | 149621 | 171112 | 180649 | 186213 | 186785 | 6 | 56104 | 47050 | 47642 | 47961 |
Fsq, TAC16 all years | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 149621 | 171112 | 177765 | 180099 | 177592 | 4 | 56104 | 49540 | 50237 | 50694 |
Fsq, TAC16 +5% | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 149621 | 171112 | 175089 | 174266 | 167917 | 2 | 56104 | 52033 | 52872 | 53457 |
Fsq, TAC16 +10% | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 149621 | 171112 | 172413 | 168707 | 158570 | 1 | 56104 | 54529 | 55508 | 56238 |
Fsq, TAC16 +15% | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.49 | 149621 | 171112 | 169670 | 162544 | 148857 | -1 | 56104 | 57022 | 58152 | 59026 |
Fsq, TAC16 +20% | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 149621 | 171112 | 167010 | 156409 | 139181 | -2 | 56104 | 59518 | 60786 | 61911 |
Fsq all years | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 149621 | 171112 | 173593 | 172361 | 168789 | 1 | 56104 | 54000 | 52875 | 50938 |
Fsq, 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 149621 | 171112 | 234400 | 304641 | 370328 | 37 | 56104 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fsq, 0.01 | 0.38 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 149621 | 171112 | 232539 | 299933 | 362502 | 36 | 56104 | 1645 | 2113 | 2526 |
Fsq, 0.02 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 149621 | 171112 | 230671 | 295303 | 354917 | 35 | 56104 | 3276 | 4173 | 4961 |
Fsq, 0.03 | 0.38 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 149621 | 171112 | 228878 | 290671 | 347003 | 34 | 56104 | 4894 | 6191 | 7311 |
Fsq, 0.04 | 0.38 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 149621 | 171112 | 227122 | 286311 | 339731 | 33 | 56104 | 6498 | 8158 | 9565 |
Fsq, 0.05 | 0.38 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 149621 | 171112 | 225375 | 281804 | 332520 | 32 | 56104 | 8089 | 10072 | 11724 |
Fsq, 0.06 | 0.38 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 149621 | 171112 | 223486 | 277294 | 325861 | 31 | 56104 | 9667 | 11931 | 13804 |
Fsq, 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 149621 | 171112 | 221804 | 272814 | 318992 | 30 | 56104 | 11228 | 13758 | 15829 |
Fsq, 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 149621 | 171112 | 220141 | 268877 | 312104 | 29 | 56104 | 12778 | 15537 | 17766 |
Fsq, 0.09 | 0.38 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 149621 | 171112 | 218399 | 264737 | 305241 | 28 | 56104 | 14313 | 17284 | 19622 |
Fsq, 0.10 | 0.38 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 149621 | 171112 | 216725 | 260757 | 298820 | 27 | 56104 | 15835 | 18984 | 21433 |
Fsq, 0.11 | 0.38 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 149621 | 171112 | 215010 | 256816 | 292545 | 26 | 56104 | 17350 | 20647 | 23182 |
Fsq, 0.12 | 0.38 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 149621 | 171112 | 213400 | 253088 | 286574 | 25 | 56104 | 18854 | 22274 | 24872 |
Fsq, 0.13 | 0.38 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 149621 | 171112 | 211743 | 249480 | 280567 | 24 | 56104 | 20341 | 23827 | 26456 |
Fsq, 0.14 | 0.38 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 149621 | 171112 | 210067 | 245977 | 274555 | 23 | 56104 | 21815 | 25371 | 27989 |
Fsq, 0.15 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 149621 | 171112 | 208377 | 242287 | 268885 | 22 | 56104 | 23275 | 26857 | 29468 |
Fsq, 0.16 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 149621 | 171112 | 206727 | 238822 | 263384 | 21 | 56104 | 24722 | 28321 | 30850 |
Fsq, 0.17 | 0.38 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 149621 | 171112 | 205128 | 235383 | 257851 | 20 | 56104 | 26155 | 29755 | 32179 |
Fsq, 0.18 | 0.38 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 149621 | 171112 | 203496 | 232041 | 252510 | 19 | 56104 | 27576 | 31163 | 33520 |
Fsq, 0.19 | 0.38 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 149621 | 171112 | 201955 | 228531 | 247360 | 18 | 56104 | 28984 | 32538 | 34775 |
Fsq, 0.20 | 0.38 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 149621 | 171112 | 200418 | 225103 | 242304 | 17 | 56104 | 30381 | 33873 | 36000 |
Fsq, 0.21 | 0.38 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 149621 | 171112 | 198881 | 221923 | 237385 | 16 | 56104 | 31770 | 35146 | 37186 |
Fsq, 0.22 | 0.38 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 149621 | 171112 | 197316 | 218776 | 232457 | 15 | 56104 | 33156 | 36378 | 38276 |
Fsq, 0.23 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 149621 | 171112 | 195741 | 215446 | 227835 | 14 | 56104 | 34521 | 37598 | 39311 |
Fsq, 0.24 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 149621 | 171112 | 194198 | 212276 | 223504 | 13 | 56104 | 35876 | 38810 | 40336 |
Fsq, 0.25 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 149621 | 171112 | 192683 | 209104 | 218932 | 13 | 56104 | 37214 | 39970 | 41315 |
Fsq, 0.26 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 149621 | 171112 | 191138 | 205889 | 214495 | 12 | 56104 | 38565 | 41102 | 42274 |
Fsq, 0.27 | 0.38 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 149621 | 171112 | 189591 | 202922 | 210257 | 11 | 56104 | 39894 | 42217 | 43238 |
Fsq, 0.28 | 0.38 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 149621 | 171112 | 188178 | 199919 | 206121 | 10 | 56104 | 41202 | 43295 | 44065 |
Fsq, 0.29 | 0.38 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 149621 | 171112 | 186692 | 196969 | 202060 | 9 | 56104 | 42500 | 44345 | 44823 |
Fsq, 0.30 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 149621 | 171112 | 185182 | 194214 | 198025 | 8 | 56104 | 43786 | 45391 | 45625 |
Fsq, 0.31 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 149621 | 171112 | 183696 | 191280 | 194224 | 7 | 56104 | 45067 | 46402 | 46353 |
Fsq, 0.32 | 0.38 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 149621 | 171112 | 182203 | 188440 | 190258 | 6 | 56104 | 46336 | 47397 | 47078 |
Fsq, 0.33 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 149621 | 171112 | 180753 | 185716 | 186489 | 6 | 56104 | 47594 | 48343 | 47719 |
Fsq, 0.34 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 149621 | 171112 | 179469 | 183101 | 182834 | 5 | 56104 | 48839 | 49254 | 48407 |
Fsq, 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 149621 | 171112 | 178078 | 180479 | 179149 | 4 | 56104 | 50083 | 50117 | 49002 |
Fsq, 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 149621 | 171112 | 176633 | 177871 | 175842 | 3 | 56104 | 51333 | 51010 | 49657 |
Fsq, 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 149621 | 171112 | 175177 | 175231 | 172610 | 2 | 56104 | 52568 | 51892 | 50258 |
Fsq, 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 149621 | 171112 | 173838 | 172788 | 169372 | 2 | 56104 | 53778 | 52725 | 50838 |
Fsq, 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 149621 | 171112 | 172510 | 170480 | 166205 | 1 | 56104 | 54987 | 53516 | 51376 |
Fsq, 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 149621 | 171112 | 171192 | 168182 | 163124 | 0 | 56104 | 56169 | 54265 | 51878 |
Fsq, 0.41 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 149621 | 171112 | 169890 | 165852 | 159971 | -1 | 56104 | 57350 | 55013 | 52346 |
Fsq, 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 149621 | 171112 | 168644 | 163496 | 156934 | -1 | 56104 | 58522 | 55757 | 52787 |
Fsq, 0.43 | 0.38 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 149621 | 171112 | 167358 | 161194 | 154120 | -2 | 56104 | 59690 | 56458 | 53245 |
Fsq, 0.44 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 149621 | 171112 | 166079 | 159112 | 151460 | -3 | 56104 | 60855 | 57141 | 53581 |
Fsq, 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 149621 | 171112 | 164782 | 157041 | 148728 | -4 | 56104 | 62012 | 57840 | 53923 |
Fsq, 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 149621 | 171112 | 163462 | 155005 | 146085 | -4 | 56104 | 63145 | 58495 | 54258 |
Fsq, 0.47 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 149621 | 171112 | 162158 | 152829 | 143359 | -5 | 56104 | 64282 | 59149 | 54701 |
Fsq, 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 149621 | 171112 | 160896 | 150784 | 140819 | -6 | 56104 | 65407 | 59779 | 55061 |
Fsq, 0.49 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 149621 | 171112 | 159630 | 148682 | 138468 | -7 | 56104 | 66521 | 60386 | 55343 |
Fsq, 0.50 | 0.38 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 149621 | 171112 | 158461 | 146694 | 135845 | -7 | 56104 | 67624 | 60944 | 55629 |