Table Xd. Forecasts for advice table |
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Description\Variable | C19 | L19 | D19 | L3a4 | L6 | Fbar19 | Fbar19(L) | Fbar19(D) | SSB20 | SSB % change | TAC % change | % Advised change |
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Fstatus quo, then FMSY | 139978 | 130275 | 9704 | 118029 | 12246 | 0.358 | 0.333 | 0.025 | 334963 | -1.481 | 20.663 | 18.165 |
Fstatus quo, then zero catch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 475333 | 39.805 | -100.000 | -100.000 |
Fstatus quo, then Fpa (1.4) | 154490 | 143719 | 10771 | 130210 | 13510 | 0.403 | 0.375 | 0.028 | 320712 | -5.672 | 33.172 | 30.416 |
Fstatus quo, then Flim | 201664 | 187381 | 14282 | 169768 | 17614 | 0.564 | 0.524 | 0.040 | 274466 | -19.274 | 73.836 | 70.238 |
Fstatus quo, then SSB2020 = Blim 107 000 | 383055 | 352742 | 30313 | 319584 | 33158 | 1.581 | 1.470 | 0.111 | 107000 | -68.529 | 230.197 | 223.362 |
Fstatus quo, then Bpa 150 000 | 334056 | 308568 | 25488 | 279563 | 29005 | 1.206 | 1.121 | 0.085 | 150000 | -55.882 | 187.960 | 181.999 |
Fstatus quo, then BTrigger 150 000 | 334056 | 308568 | 25488 | 279563 | 29005 | 1.206 | 1.121 | 0.085 | 150000 | -55.882 | 187.960 | 181.999 |
Fstatus quo, then F2018 | 108758 | 101271 | 7487 | 91752 | 9519 | 0.267 | 0.248 | 0.019 | 365832 | 7.599 | -6.250 | -8.190 |
Fstatus quo, then TAC 2018 | 116008 | 108019 | 7989 | 97865 | 10154 | 0.287 | 0.267 | 0.020 | 358570 | 5.463 | -0.000 | -2.070 |
Fstatus quo, then FMSY lower (w/o Btrig) | 88908 | 82832 | 6076 | 75046 | 7786 | 0.213 | 0.198 | 0.015 | 385352 | 13.340 | -23.361 | -24.947 |
Fstatus quo, then FMSY upper (curtailed to FP.05AR) | 181445 | 168651 | 12794 | 152798 | 15853 | 0.492 | 0.457 | 0.035 | 294229 | -13.461 | 56.407 | 53.170 |
Fstatus quo, then FMSY lower (w Btrig) | 87775 | 81781 | 5994 | 74094 | 7687 | 0.210 | 0.195 | 0.015 | 386491 | 13.675 | -24.337 | -25.903 |
Fstatus quo, then F in 0.01 steps | 91537 | 85272 | 6265 | 77257 | 8016 | 0.220 | 0.205 | 0.015 | 382700 | 12.560 | -21.094 | -22.727 |
Fstatus quo, then | 95264 | 88738 | 6526 | 80397 | 8341 | 0.230 | 0.214 | 0.016 | 379054 | 11.488 | -17.881 | -19.581 |
Fstatus quo, then | 98957 | 92169 | 6788 | 83505 | 8664 | 0.240 | 0.223 | 0.017 | 375468 | 10.433 | -14.698 | -16.464 |
Fstatus quo, then | 102617 | 95566 | 7051 | 86583 | 8983 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.018 | 371827 | 9.362 | -11.543 | -13.374 |
Fstatus quo, then | 106241 | 98933 | 7308 | 89634 | 9300 | 0.260 | 0.242 | 0.018 | 368286 | 8.321 | -8.419 | -10.315 |
Fstatus quo, then | 109831 | 102268 | 7563 | 92655 | 9613 | 0.270 | 0.251 | 0.019 | 364777 | 7.288 | -5.324 | -7.284 |
Fstatus quo, then | 113380 | 105572 | 7808 | 95648 | 9924 | 0.280 | 0.260 | 0.020 | 361247 | 6.250 | -2.265 | -4.288 |
Fstatus quo, then | 116892 | 108844 | 8048 | 98612 | 10231 | 0.290 | 0.270 | 0.020 | 357684 | 5.202 | 0.762 | -1.324 |
Fstatus quo, then | 120370 | 112091 | 8279 | 101554 | 10537 | 0.300 | 0.279 | 0.021 | 354265 | 4.197 | 3.760 | 1.612 |
Fstatus quo, then | 123820 | 115305 | 8515 | 104466 | 10839 | 0.310 | 0.288 | 0.022 | 350884 | 3.202 | 6.734 | 4.525 |
Fstatus quo, then | 127253 | 118484 | 8769 | 107347 | 11137 | 0.320 | 0.297 | 0.023 | 347503 | 2.208 | 9.693 | 7.423 |
Fstatus quo, then | 130650 | 121629 | 9020 | 110196 | 11433 | 0.330 | 0.307 | 0.023 | 344170 | 1.228 | 12.621 | 10.290 |
Fstatus quo, then | 134012 | 124745 | 9267 | 113019 | 11726 | 0.340 | 0.316 | 0.024 | 340848 | 0.251 | 15.520 | 13.129 |
Fstatus quo, then | 137337 | 127824 | 9513 | 115809 | 12015 | 0.350 | 0.325 | 0.025 | 337558 | -0.717 | 18.386 | 15.936 |
Fstatus quo, then | 140636 | 130885 | 9752 | 118581 | 12303 | 0.360 | 0.335 | 0.025 | 334326 | -1.668 | 21.230 | 18.720 |
Fstatus quo, then | 143908 | 133916 | 9992 | 121328 | 12588 | 0.370 | 0.344 | 0.026 | 331132 | -2.607 | 24.050 | 21.482 |
Fstatus quo, then | 147147 | 136919 | 10227 | 124049 | 12870 | 0.380 | 0.353 | 0.027 | 327971 | -3.537 | 26.842 | 24.216 |
Fstatus quo, then | 150355 | 139894 | 10461 | 126744 | 13150 | 0.390 | 0.363 | 0.027 | 324834 | -4.459 | 29.608 | 26.925 |
Fstatus quo, then | 153538 | 142841 | 10697 | 129414 | 13427 | 0.400 | 0.372 | 0.028 | 321650 | -5.396 | 32.351 | 29.612 |
Fstatus quo, then | 156702 | 145759 | 10943 | 132058 | 13701 | 0.410 | 0.381 | 0.029 | 318534 | -6.313 | 35.079 | 32.283 |
Fstatus quo, then | 159835 | 148649 | 11186 | 134676 | 13973 | 0.420 | 0.390 | 0.030 | 315429 | -7.226 | 37.779 | 34.927 |
Fstatus quo, then | 162928 | 151506 | 11422 | 137265 | 14242 | 0.430 | 0.400 | 0.030 | 312358 | -8.129 | 40.446 | 37.539 |
Fstatus quo, then | 165986 | 154343 | 11643 | 139835 | 14508 | 0.440 | 0.409 | 0.031 | 309341 | -9.016 | 43.082 | 40.120 |
Fstatus quo, then | 169009 | 157155 | 11855 | 142382 | 14773 | 0.450 | 0.418 | 0.032 | 306362 | -9.893 | 45.688 | 42.672 |
Fstatus quo, then | 172004 | 159934 | 12070 | 144901 | 15034 | 0.460 | 0.428 | 0.032 | 303393 | -10.766 | 48.269 | 45.200 |
Fstatus quo, then | 174988 | 162686 | 12302 | 147393 | 15292 | 0.470 | 0.437 | 0.033 | 300489 | -11.620 | 50.841 | 47.719 |
Fstatus quo, then | 177943 | 165415 | 12528 | 149866 | 15549 | 0.480 | 0.446 | 0.034 | 297611 | -12.466 | 53.388 | 50.214 |
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