Table X. Forecasts (Fs and Catches are including estimated unallocated removals) | ||||||||||||||
Description\Variable | Fbar16 | Fbar17 | Fbar18 | Fbar19 | SSB16 | SSB17 | SSB18 | SSB19 | SSB20 | SSB % change | C16 | C17 | C18 | C19 |
Fsq, EU MP | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 162417 | 174300 | 173495 | 171376 | 168355 | -0 | 56302 | 55959 | 53176 | 51087 |
Fsq, EU-Norway | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 162417 | 174300 | 175637 | 173013 | 169678 | 1 | 56302 | 54047 | 53806 | 51541 |
Fsq, Fmsy HCR | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 162417 | 174300 | 182807 | 188515 | 191706 | 5 | 56302 | 47431 | 47361 | 47155 |
Fsq, zero catch | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 162417 | 174300 | 237118 | 307740 | 372686 | 36 | 56302 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fsq, Fmsy | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 162417 | 174300 | 182807 | 188515 | 191706 | 5 | 56302 | 47431 | 47361 | 47155 |
Fsq, Fpa | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 162417 | 174300 | 172171 | 169103 | 165281 | -1 | 56302 | 57140 | 53895 | 51541 |
Fsq, Flim | 0.39 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.58 | 162417 | 174300 | 151846 | 134929 | 123262 | -13 | 56302 | 75810 | 63649 | 56608 |
Fsq, SSB2018=Blim | 0.39 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 162417 | 174300 | 118000 | 88170 | 72950 | -32 | 56302 | 107400 | 72088 | 56978 |
Fsq, SSB2018=Bpa | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 162417 | 174300 | 165000 | 156282 | 149569 | -5 | 56302 | 63652 | 57878 | 53933 |
Fsq, SSB2018=Btrigger | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 162417 | 174300 | 165000 | 156282 | 149569 | -5 | 56302 | 63652 | 57878 | 53933 |
Fsq, TAC16 -20% | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.26 | 0.25 | 162417 | 174300 | 191608 | 207709 | 218101 | 10 | 56302 | 39518 | 39895 | 40043 |
Fsq, TAC16 -15% | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 162417 | 174300 | 188858 | 201598 | 208834 | 8 | 56302 | 41995 | 42456 | 42690 |
Fsq, TAC16 -10% | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 162417 | 174300 | 186052 | 195584 | 198896 | 7 | 56302 | 44478 | 45026 | 45374 |
Fsq, TAC16 -5% | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.34 | 162417 | 174300 | 183206 | 189451 | 189490 | 5 | 56302 | 46962 | 47616 | 48076 |
Fsq, TAC16 all years | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 162417 | 174300 | 180305 | 183390 | 180231 | 3 | 56302 | 49454 | 50214 | 50814 |
Fsq, TAC16 +5% | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 162417 | 174300 | 177556 | 177101 | 170508 | 2 | 56302 | 51940 | 52811 | 53577 |
Fsq, TAC16 +10% | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 162417 | 174300 | 174736 | 171028 | 160715 | 0 | 56302 | 54426 | 55445 | 56375 |
Fsq, TAC16 +15% | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 0.50 | 162417 | 174300 | 171902 | 165080 | 151676 | -1 | 56302 | 56915 | 58084 | 59233 |
Fsq, TAC16 +20% | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.55 | 162417 | 174300 | 169100 | 159094 | 142343 | -3 | 56302 | 59410 | 60721 | 62110 |
Fsq all years | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 162417 | 174300 | 175459 | 174721 | 172896 | 1 | 56302 | 54214 | 52065 | 50407 |
Fsq, 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 162417 | 174300 | 237118 | 307740 | 372686 | 36 | 56302 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fsq, 0.01 | 0.39 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 162417 | 174300 | 235285 | 302988 | 364680 | 35 | 56302 | 1636 | 2097 | 2484 |
Fsq, 0.02 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 162417 | 174300 | 233338 | 298185 | 357362 | 34 | 56302 | 3258 | 4145 | 4879 |
Fsq, 0.03 | 0.39 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 162417 | 174300 | 231373 | 294029 | 349409 | 33 | 56302 | 4865 | 6145 | 7189 |
Fsq, 0.04 | 0.39 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 162417 | 174300 | 229484 | 289719 | 341739 | 32 | 56302 | 6459 | 8086 | 9404 |
Fsq, 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 162417 | 174300 | 227667 | 285097 | 334616 | 31 | 56302 | 8039 | 9977 | 11544 |
Fsq, 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 162417 | 174300 | 225903 | 280620 | 327702 | 30 | 56302 | 9605 | 11820 | 13597 |
Fsq, 0.07 | 0.39 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 162417 | 174300 | 224053 | 276714 | 321077 | 29 | 56302 | 11159 | 13616 | 15578 |
Fsq, 0.08 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 162417 | 174300 | 222184 | 272959 | 314437 | 27 | 56302 | 12700 | 15365 | 17478 |
Fsq, 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 162417 | 174300 | 220378 | 268645 | 307874 | 26 | 56302 | 14226 | 17073 | 19324 |
Fsq, 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 162417 | 174300 | 218481 | 264634 | 301571 | 25 | 56302 | 15740 | 18761 | 21096 |
Fsq, 0.11 | 0.39 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 162417 | 174300 | 216641 | 260665 | 295158 | 24 | 56302 | 17244 | 20404 | 22769 |
Fsq, 0.12 | 0.39 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 162417 | 174300 | 214839 | 256650 | 288902 | 23 | 56302 | 18736 | 22007 | 24395 |
Fsq, 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 162417 | 174300 | 213185 | 252651 | 282779 | 22 | 56302 | 20219 | 23559 | 25974 |
Fsq, 0.14 | 0.39 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 162417 | 174300 | 211588 | 248844 | 277115 | 21 | 56302 | 21687 | 25066 | 27493 |
Fsq, 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 162417 | 174300 | 209916 | 245149 | 271789 | 20 | 56302 | 23150 | 26550 | 28926 |
Fsq, 0.16 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 162417 | 174300 | 208351 | 241701 | 266030 | 20 | 56302 | 24593 | 27969 | 30334 |
Fsq, 0.17 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 162417 | 174300 | 206787 | 238073 | 260806 | 19 | 56302 | 26023 | 29383 | 31692 |
Fsq, 0.18 | 0.39 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 162417 | 174300 | 205220 | 234351 | 255602 | 18 | 56302 | 27437 | 30746 | 33016 |
Fsq, 0.19 | 0.39 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 162417 | 174300 | 203757 | 231162 | 250498 | 17 | 56302 | 28845 | 32087 | 34225 |
Fsq, 0.20 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 0.20 | 162417 | 174300 | 202320 | 227738 | 245499 | 16 | 56302 | 30243 | 33432 | 35407 |
Fsq, 0.21 | 0.39 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 0.21 | 162417 | 174300 | 200826 | 224325 | 240636 | 15 | 56302 | 31634 | 34696 | 36543 |
Fsq, 0.22 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 0.22 | 162417 | 174300 | 199262 | 220987 | 235714 | 14 | 56302 | 33012 | 35922 | 37666 |
Fsq, 0.23 | 0.39 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 162417 | 174300 | 197722 | 217867 | 231158 | 13 | 56302 | 34377 | 37116 | 38700 |
Fsq, 0.24 | 0.39 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 0.24 | 162417 | 174300 | 196208 | 214724 | 226684 | 13 | 56302 | 35724 | 38242 | 39723 |
Fsq, 0.25 | 0.39 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 162417 | 174300 | 194675 | 211508 | 222319 | 12 | 56302 | 37066 | 39395 | 40698 |
Fsq, 0.26 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 0.26 | 162417 | 174300 | 193156 | 208428 | 218479 | 11 | 56302 | 38398 | 40477 | 41646 |
Fsq, 0.27 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 162417 | 174300 | 191642 | 205419 | 214219 | 10 | 56302 | 39720 | 41534 | 42506 |
Fsq, 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 162417 | 174300 | 190047 | 202392 | 210370 | 9 | 56302 | 41031 | 42556 | 43353 |
Fsq, 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 0.29 | 162417 | 174300 | 188467 | 199598 | 206415 | 8 | 56302 | 42331 | 43554 | 44186 |
Fsq, 0.30 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 162417 | 174300 | 186956 | 196679 | 202486 | 7 | 56302 | 43623 | 44537 | 44996 |
Fsq, 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 0.31 | 162417 | 174300 | 185545 | 193810 | 198800 | 6 | 56302 | 44903 | 45505 | 45742 |
Fsq, 0.32 | 0.39 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.32 | 162417 | 174300 | 184157 | 191233 | 195218 | 6 | 56302 | 46171 | 46434 | 46514 |
Fsq, 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 162417 | 174300 | 182807 | 188515 | 191706 | 5 | 56302 | 47431 | 47361 | 47155 |
Fsq, 0.34 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 162417 | 174300 | 181469 | 185893 | 188169 | 4 | 56302 | 48670 | 48250 | 47757 |
Fsq, 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.35 | 162417 | 174300 | 180143 | 183439 | 184711 | 3 | 56302 | 49907 | 49123 | 48347 |
Fsq, 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 162417 | 174300 | 178726 | 180960 | 181301 | 3 | 56302 | 51132 | 50003 | 48955 |
Fsq, 0.37 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 162417 | 174300 | 177382 | 178378 | 177933 | 2 | 56302 | 52353 | 50819 | 49531 |
Fsq, 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 162417 | 174300 | 176133 | 176020 | 174592 | 1 | 56302 | 53565 | 51615 | 50098 |
Fsq, 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 162417 | 174300 | 174827 | 173628 | 171442 | 0 | 56302 | 54767 | 52439 | 50622 |
Fsq, 0.40 | 0.39 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 162417 | 174300 | 173495 | 171376 | 168355 | -0 | 56302 | 55959 | 53176 | 51087 |
Fsq, 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 162417 | 174300 | 172171 | 169103 | 165281 | -1 | 56302 | 57140 | 53895 | 51541 |
Fsq, 0.42 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 162417 | 174300 | 170860 | 166764 | 162293 | -2 | 56302 | 58311 | 54609 | 52006 |
Fsq, 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 162417 | 174300 | 169566 | 164489 | 159497 | -3 | 56302 | 59469 | 55334 | 52419 |
Fsq, 0.44 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 162417 | 174300 | 168336 | 162119 | 156817 | -3 | 56302 | 60625 | 56020 | 52830 |
Fsq, 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 162417 | 174300 | 167092 | 159895 | 154169 | -4 | 56302 | 61761 | 56712 | 53236 |
Fsq, 0.46 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 0.46 | 162417 | 174300 | 165843 | 157737 | 151448 | -5 | 56302 | 62880 | 57412 | 53651 |
Fsq, 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 162417 | 174300 | 164628 | 155630 | 148788 | -6 | 56302 | 63993 | 58068 | 54061 |
Fsq, 0.48 | 0.39 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 162417 | 174300 | 163423 | 153527 | 146321 | -6 | 56302 | 65112 | 58638 | 54448 |
Fsq, 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 162417 | 174300 | 162229 | 151474 | 143913 | -7 | 56302 | 66234 | 59209 | 54735 |
Fsq, 0.50 | 0.39 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 162417 | 174300 | 161023 | 149518 | 141474 | -8 | 56302 | 67336 | 59809 | 54963 |