Table Xd. Forecasts for advice table |
|
Description\Variable | C19 | L19 | D19 | L3a4 | L6 | Fbar19 | Fbar19(L) | Fbar19(D) | SSB20 | SSB % change | TAC % change | % Advised change |
|
Fstatus quo, then FMSY | 135035 | 127619 | 7416 | 115623 | 11996 | 0.358 | 0.333 | 0.025 | 319880 | -7.193 | 16.401 | 13.992 |
Fstatus quo, then zero catch | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 459630 | 33.352 | -100.000 | -100.000 |
Fstatus quo, then Fpa (1.4) | 148973 | 140725 | 8248 | 127497 | 13228 | 0.403 | 0.375 | 0.028 | 305711 | -11.304 | 28.416 | 25.758 |
Fstatus quo, then Flim | 194139 | 183090 | 11049 | 165880 | 17210 | 0.564 | 0.525 | 0.039 | 260516 | -24.417 | 67.349 | 63.885 |
Fstatus quo, then SSB2020 = Blim 107 000 | 355855 | 332849 | 23006 | 301562 | 31288 | 1.492 | 1.389 | 0.103 | 107000 | -68.956 | 206.750 | 200.401 |
Fstatus quo, then Bpa 150 000 | 308299 | 289180 | 19119 | 261997 | 27183 | 1.131 | 1.053 | 0.078 | 150000 | -56.480 | 165.757 | 160.256 |
Fstatus quo, then BTrigger 150 000 | 319476 | 299432 | 20044 | 271285 | 28147 | 1.206 | 1.123 | 0.083 | 139672 | -59.477 | 175.391 | 169.691 |
Fstatus quo, then F2018 | 101902 | 96386 | 5516 | 87326 | 9060 | 0.258 | 0.240 | 0.018 | 353949 | 2.691 | -12.159 | -13.977 |
Fstatus quo, then TAC 2018 | 116008 | 109673 | 6334 | 99364 | 10309 | 0.299 | 0.279 | 0.021 | 339375 | -1.537 | -0.000 | -2.070 |
Fstatus quo, then FMSY lower (w Btrig) | 85912 | 81291 | 4621 | 73649 | 7641 | 0.213 | 0.198 | 0.015 | 370401 | 7.464 | -25.943 | -27.476 |
Fstatus quo, then FMSY upper (curtailed to FP.05AR) | 174789 | 164980 | 9809 | 149472 | 15508 | 0.492 | 0.458 | 0.034 | 280051 | -18.749 | 50.670 | 47.551 |
Fstatus quo, then FMSY lower (w/o Btrig) | 84822 | 80262 | 4560 | 72718 | 7545 | 0.210 | 0.196 | 0.014 | 371491 | 7.781 | -26.883 | -28.396 |
Fstatus quo, then F in 0.01 steps | 88447 | 83681 | 4767 | 75815 | 7866 | 0.220 | 0.205 | 0.015 | 367775 | 6.702 | -23.757 | -25.336 |
Fstatus quo, then | 92041 | 87070 | 4971 | 78885 | 8185 | 0.230 | 0.214 | 0.016 | 364088 | 5.633 | -20.660 | -22.302 |
Fstatus quo, then | 95594 | 90426 | 5168 | 81926 | 8500 | 0.240 | 0.223 | 0.017 | 360448 | 4.577 | -17.597 | -19.303 |
Fstatus quo, then | 99112 | 93749 | 5364 | 84936 | 8812 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.017 | 356786 | 3.514 | -14.564 | -16.333 |
Fstatus quo, then | 102596 | 97041 | 5555 | 87920 | 9122 | 0.260 | 0.242 | 0.018 | 353222 | 2.480 | -11.561 | -13.391 |
Fstatus quo, then | 106047 | 100297 | 5750 | 90869 | 9428 | 0.270 | 0.251 | 0.019 | 349626 | 1.437 | -8.586 | -10.478 |
Fstatus quo, then | 109471 | 103520 | 5951 | 93789 | 9731 | 0.280 | 0.261 | 0.019 | 346127 | 0.422 | -5.635 | -7.588 |
Fstatus quo, then | 112861 | 106712 | 6149 | 96681 | 10031 | 0.290 | 0.270 | 0.020 | 342617 | -0.597 | -2.713 | -4.726 |
Fstatus quo, then | 116219 | 109873 | 6346 | 99545 | 10328 | 0.300 | 0.279 | 0.021 | 339152 | -1.602 | 0.182 | -1.892 |
Fstatus quo, then | 119539 | 113013 | 6526 | 102389 | 10623 | 0.310 | 0.289 | 0.021 | 335768 | -2.584 | 3.044 | 0.911 |
Fstatus quo, then | 122827 | 116113 | 6714 | 105198 | 10915 | 0.320 | 0.298 | 0.022 | 332361 | -3.572 | 5.878 | 3.686 |
Fstatus quo, then | 126078 | 119183 | 6895 | 107979 | 11203 | 0.330 | 0.307 | 0.023 | 328982 | -4.553 | 8.680 | 6.431 |
Fstatus quo, then | 129306 | 122222 | 7083 | 110734 | 11489 | 0.340 | 0.317 | 0.023 | 325641 | -5.522 | 11.463 | 9.156 |
Fstatus quo, then | 132501 | 125233 | 7268 | 113461 | 11772 | 0.350 | 0.326 | 0.024 | 322422 | -6.456 | 14.217 | 11.853 |
Fstatus quo, then | 135666 | 128212 | 7454 | 116160 | 12052 | 0.360 | 0.335 | 0.025 | 319248 | -7.377 | 16.945 | 14.524 |
Fstatus quo, then | 138811 | 131164 | 7648 | 118834 | 12329 | 0.370 | 0.344 | 0.026 | 316091 | -8.292 | 19.657 | 17.180 |
Fstatus quo, then | 141928 | 134091 | 7836 | 121487 | 12605 | 0.380 | 0.354 | 0.026 | 312937 | -9.208 | 22.343 | 19.811 |
Fstatus quo, then | 145012 | 136996 | 8015 | 124119 | 12878 | 0.390 | 0.363 | 0.027 | 309746 | -10.133 | 25.001 | 22.414 |
Fstatus quo, then | 148065 | 139869 | 8196 | 126721 | 13148 | 0.400 | 0.372 | 0.028 | 306653 | -11.031 | 27.633 | 24.991 |
Fstatus quo, then | 151081 | 142708 | 8373 | 129293 | 13415 | 0.410 | 0.382 | 0.028 | 303548 | -11.932 | 30.233 | 27.537 |
Fstatus quo, then | 154068 | 145521 | 8547 | 131842 | 13679 | 0.420 | 0.391 | 0.029 | 300580 | -12.793 | 32.808 | 30.059 |
Fstatus quo, then | 157027 | 148298 | 8729 | 134358 | 13940 | 0.430 | 0.400 | 0.030 | 297640 | -13.646 | 35.358 | 32.557 |
Fstatus quo, then | 159963 | 151051 | 8912 | 136852 | 14199 | 0.440 | 0.410 | 0.030 | 294727 | -14.491 | 37.889 | 35.035 |
Fstatus quo, then | 162872 | 153778 | 9093 | 139323 | 14455 | 0.450 | 0.419 | 0.031 | 291869 | -15.320 | 40.397 | 37.491 |
Fstatus quo, then | 165755 | 156486 | 9270 | 141776 | 14710 | 0.460 | 0.428 | 0.032 | 288980 | -16.158 | 42.883 | 39.925 |
Fstatus quo, then | 168604 | 159177 | 9427 | 144215 | 14963 | 0.470 | 0.438 | 0.032 | 286183 | -16.970 | 45.338 | 42.330 |
Fstatus quo, then | 171431 | 161837 | 9594 | 146624 | 15213 | 0.480 | 0.447 | 0.033 | 283357 | -17.790 | 47.775 | 44.716 |
|